India's Water Strategy on Indus Waters Treaty
India is planning to ensure that "not a drop of water will go to Pakistan," as stated by Water Resources Minister C.R. Patil on April 25, 2025. The government is preparing short, medium, and long-term plans to implement this strategy.
Indus River System
- The Indus river system includes the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers.
- It is Pakistan’s main water source, with 80% of its cultivated land (approximately 16 million hectares) relying on it.
- 93% of the Indus water is used for irrigation, contributing to nearly 25% of Pakistan's GDP.
Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)
- India has kept the IWT "in abeyance" due to "sustained cross-border terrorism" from Pakistan.
- India's request to renegotiate the treaty based on new circumstances like population change and climate threats has been ignored by Pakistan, constituting a "breach of trust."
India's Position and Actions
- The Pahalgam attack has led India to announce the 'abeyance' of the IWT, stopping periodic communications with Pakistan on hydrological data and infrastructural updates.
- India has not convened the Permanent Indus Commission since 2022 and called for renegotiation in 2023.
- India cannot create significant hydropower storage on the western rivers as per the IWT, but projects like Kishenganga and Baglihar are run-of-the-river.
Comments and Implications
- Pakistan's Power Minister termed India's suspension of IWT as an "act of water warfare."
- The World Bank, historically an arbiter, stated it does not opine on treaty-related sovereign decisions by member countries.
- India may explore options like withdrawing from talks on dispute resolution or modifying project designs to store more water.
The strategic shift in India's approach to the Indus Waters Treaty is poised to have significant geopolitical ramifications, emphasizing the interplay between regional security and resource management.
