Geopolitical Dynamics and Critical Minerals

The resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war appears imminent, with the potential peace terms significantly influenced by Ukraine's offer of access to its critical mineral resources. The global focus has shifted from oil to critical minerals such as copper, lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, and rare earths, which are essential for technologies like electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Historical Context and Strategic Vulnerability

• In the latter half of the 20th century, American foreign policy was driven by geoeconomic interests, especially oil. For instance, the US's involvement in the first Gulf War was partly due to its oil import dependence.
• The US has since achieved self-sufficiency in oil and gas, reducing strategic vulnerabilities associated with import dependence.
• Russia's ability to sustain protracted conflicts, despite economic challenges, stems from its self-sufficiency in oil and gas.

Current Geopolitical Landscape

• The US faces a challenge similar to its past oil dependency but with critical minerals, where it is heavily import-dependent, particularly with China controlling much of the world's rare earths.
• Former President Trump's interest in acquiring regions like Greenland highlights the strategic importance of accessing critical minerals.
• Ukraine's mineral wealth, including vast lithium and graphite reserves, provides the US with strategic leverage.

Lessons for India

• India aims to become a manufacturing hub, necessitating a focus on critical minerals, which are currently heavily imported.
• The government is pursuing overseas assets and supply agreements but must also increase domestic exploration and production.
• Liberalizing exploration and allowing monetization of mineral discoveries is crucial for reducing vulnerabilities.

The text underscores the shifting focus from oil to critical minerals in global geopolitics, highlighting the strategic importance of resource independence and the need for countries like India to enhance their mineral exploration and production capabilities.