Unseasonal Weather Patterns in May

This May has been characterized by unusually wet weather, with India recording 68.4% more rainfall than the average for this month. Additionally, there have been no reports of record-breaking temperatures or significant heatwaves affecting large parts of the country.

Factors Contributing to Weather Conditions

• Intermittent showers have been a result of: 
  • Western disturbance winds bringing moisture from the Mediterranean Sea.
  • Similar moisture incursions from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
• The cumulative precipitation for the pre-monsoon season (March 1 to May 23) is 16.8% above the long-period average.
• Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, 27 have reported 20% or more surplus rain.

Impact on Temperatures

• Each thunderstorm has managed to lower temperatures, mitigating the building heat conditions.
• This has resulted in a relatively bearable summer so far.

Monsoon Forecast and Influencing Factors

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal rainfall for the monsoon season (June-September).
• Two major ocean indicators influencing the monsoon are favorable: 
  • No El Niño is expected this time.
  • The Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to remain in a “neutral” state.
• The monsoon also relies on the formation of heat lows over northwest India, which are crucial for drawing in moist air.

Economic Implications

• A good monsoon is essential for an economy recovering from high food inflation experienced between July 2023 and December 2024.
• Positive indicators include: 
  • Consumer food price inflation dropping to a 42-month low of 1.8% in April.
  • Wheat stocks reaching a four-year high in government warehouses as of May 1.
• Despite easing international food and commodity prices, the monsoon's performance remains crucial.
• Policymakers and economic agents are advised to prepare for possible variations in rainfall quantity, distribution, and timing over the upcoming four-month monsoon season.