Why in the News?

China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh recently held their first-ever trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the 6th China-South Asia Cooperation Forum.

More on the News

• The meeting aimed to promote regional cooperation and connectivity, with China taking the lead in facilitating dialogue among them.
• This marks China's second trilateral initiative in India's immediate neighbourhood, following a similar engagement with Pakistan and Afghanistan.
  • The three sides aim to deepen cooperation in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), promote the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan, and strengthen the construction of regional interconnection networks.
• Also, multiple analyses point towards the emergence of a strategic nexus involving China, Turkey, and Pakistan, as evidenced by their coordinated responses during the Pahalgam crisis.
• These engagements challenge India's traditional influence in the region. China intends to create an arc of strategic influence spanning from Afghanistan to the Bay of Bengal.
  • Pakistan: E.g., Pakistan is dependent on China for majority of its defence import. 

Factors facilitating these Trilateral Engagements

• Historical: Both Pakistan and China share longstanding border disputes with India. Their strategic partnership deepened significantly after the 1962 Sino-India war.
• China's Assertive Regional Policy: Actively expanding geopolitical footprint in South to achieve regional dominance and access to Indian Ocean trade routes.
• Strategic Balancing against India: Countries like Bangladesh leverage ties with China to counter India's regional influence and assert greater strategic autonomy. 
• Infrastructure Diplomacy: China is offering faster and larger infrastructure funding to India's neighbours.

Concerns / Implications for India from Rising China's Influence 

• Geostrategic Encirclement: China has already established a presence at strategic ports under the 'String of Pearls' Strategy. E.g., Hambantota Port (Srilanka).
  • Northeast India's vulnerability may be heightened if Bangladeshi territory can be used to destabilize Northeast India by fuelling insurgent activities. 
• Undermining India led Regional Platforms: This could undermine the influence of India-backed groups such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).
• Diminishing Regional Influence: E.g. Bangladesh expressed interest in involving China in the Teesta River project, which has long been a point of friction between India and Bangladesh.
• India's Connectivity Initiatives:Promotion of BRI Projects may impact India-led alternatives such as the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) initiative and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC).

Strategy to be adopted by India

• Counterbalance through Strategic Partnerships: India should enhance cooperation with like-minded nations like Japan, the US, etc. to balance Chinese influence in South Asia. E.g. QUAD 
• Implementation of developmental projects: The Ministry of External Affairs can set up a dedicated cell to coordinate specific projects and initiatives with neighbouring countries.
• Development Fund: Explore the feasibility of setting up a regional development fund for connectivity infrastructure under regional frameworks like BIMSTEC.
• Bilateral and multilateral/ regional framework: Conduct regular reviews of multilateral/ regional framework to align these mechanisms with changing regional dynamics.
  • India should actively work to get better outcome from its Act East policy.
• Engagement through RIC: China and Russia recently showed interest in reviving RIC, which was initiated in late 1990s by Russia, but has been dormant due to factors like 2020 Galwan Valley clashes. 

Conclusion

The China-Pakistan-Bangladesh trilateral meeting marks a significant development in South Asian geopolitics. A proactive, inclusive, and balanced foreign policy backed by economic, strategic, and cultural outreach is essential for India to safeguard its interests and retain its influence in the neighbourhood.