Recent events like the Punjab floods, landslides and flash floods in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir highlight the growing frequency and intensity of monsoon-related extreme weather events.
Changing nature of Monsoon
- Erratic patterns of rainfall: Research suggests that monsoon winds are weakening. However, rising temperatures are increasing atmospheric moisture, creating more intense bursts of rainfall separated by frequent dry spells.
- Changing El Niño-monsoon relationship: Weakening of the correlation between El Niño and reduced monsoon rainfall over India due to changes in global atmospheric circulation patterns.
- Spatial distribution of monsoon: Humid regions are becoming drier and dry regions are becoming wetter.
- E.g., decreasing rainfall along the Ganga basin states while increasing rainfall in Gujarat’s Saurashtra, Rajasthan.
- Climate change: Rising sea levels and temperatures result in changes in monsoon patterns, increasing water vapour holding capacity of clouds, impacting intensity of rainfall.
Impact of changing Monsoon Patterns in India
- Increased Monsoon disasters: The intensity of rains in small time periods have led to loss of lives and infrastructure, overwhelming the disaster management system.
- Health implications: Changing monsoon patterns are increasing disease risks and reducing productivity. E.g., Heat stress, dengue, etc.
- Forecasting challenges: Increased variability of rainfall and impact of aspects like climate change and global warming have made it difficult to provide accurate forecasts, hindering disaster preparedness.
- Economic: Monsoon directly affects 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of agricultural production, with 47% of the population dependent on agriculture for livelihood.
Conclusion
This shift in monsoon patterns highlights the need to move from a post-disaster response to a pre-disaster focus on reducing vulnerabilities through sustainable infrastructure and effective early-warning systems.