Nuclear Weapons Arsenal

Why in the News?

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its SIPRI Yearbook 2024 highlighting a concerning rise in nuclear weapon development and deployment.

Key findings

•  India’s arsenal increased from 164 in 2023 to 172, representing a slight increase that has given it the two-warhead advantage over Pakistan.
• The reliance on nuclear deterrence has deepened, with nine nuclear-armed states modernizing their arsenals and deploying new nuclear-capable systems.
  • Presently, there’re 12,121 warheads worldwide with 2,100 on high alert.
• Also, transparency about nuclear forces has declined in Russia and the US.
• Even though the total nuclear warheads have declined, the number of operational warheads has increased yearly, reflecting current tensions.

Factors for Procurement of Nuclear Arsenal

• Security: Nuclear weapons’ immense destructive power forces nations to acquire their own nuclear deterrent to balance against nuclear-armed rivals, preserving national security.
• Domestic Politics: Powerful state actors like nuclear energy officials, military units, and pro-nuclear politicians form a coalition to acquire nuclear weapons.
• The Norm: A normative belief where acquisitions of nuclear weapons by the State bring in prestige (sign of great power), and therefore, influence its behaviour across international I.

Threats posed by nuclear weapons

• Global Threat perception 
  • Escalation of Nuclear Risk: Nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation face complexity as stakeholders struggle to separate nuclear issues from broader geopolitical tensions.
    • E.g., Russia withdrew the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and suspended its membership of the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty).
  • Nuclear Sabre rattling: It is the use nuclear threats or nuclear bullying to affect geopolitics.
    • E.g., In 2023, Russia warned that the “nuclear apocalypse” is drawing “closer.”
    • E.g., North Korea’s threat in response to U.S.–South Korean joint military exercises.
  • The Risk of Nuclear Disaster in Ukraine: E.g., Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was targeted with suicide drones in 2024.
  • Cyber-Nuclear Security Threats: It can be used to undermine the security of nuclear materials and facility operations, and it can compromise nuclear command and control systems. 
  • Space nuclear weapons: Detonating a nuclear weapon in space would create an electromagnetic pulse that would damage satellites indiscriminately, unless they are specially hardened, and create a tremendous amount of debris which could cause additional damages.
• India’s threat perception
  • China is a growing concern for India: Modernisation of Chinese nuclear arsenal and a possible shift away from its “minimum deterrence” and “no first use” posture.
  • A ‘Cascading Security Dilemma’ with Pakistan: When India arms itself to deter China, Pakistan perceives new threats from India and pursues enhanced capabilities of its own.
    • Pakistan has opted to emphasize smaller battlefield or “tactical” nuclear weapons (TNWs) as a counter to India’s larger and superior conventional forces.
      • TNWs have a low range and low yield capacity to limit the destruction to a certain targeted area.
    • TNWs are also to counter the ‘Cold Start Doctrine’ of the Indian Army, which is to conduct quick military strikes against Pakistan in a pre-emptive way to inflict significant attrition on the enemy. 
    • Unlike India, Pakistan has not declared a No First Use policy, hence, lower the nuclear threshold and introduce a far greater risk.
    • In a worst-case scenario, Southern Asia would enter an accelerated nuclear arms race.
  • Nuclear terrorism is constant threat to India: Taking advantage deteriorating security, terrorist groups, aided by supportive countries, may acquire nuclear materials.

Nuclear weapon Technologies Nuclear weapon, device designed to release energy in an explosive manner as a result of nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, or a combination of the two processes. Fission weapon Fusion weapon   Neutron bomb: It’s a thermonuclear weapon. The explosion from a neutron bomb is relatively small.